The times they are a changin’

If the pace of technological advancement is speeding up, the pace of human consensus-building cannot afford to slow down.

At some point, AI decision-making will have to intervene. AI concerned with countering the ‘natural’ tendencies towards wealth concentration, human corruption and human greed (greedy because we can be).

Will religion, which used to counter these things, cope with an AI world?

Cry freedom

_MG_6660-Perseverance-Place-for-WebIs freedom now a zero-sum game? 

In the distant past, there were new lands to explore and colonise. Phase one – human freedom was on the rise.

Then came space constraints, leading to wars over resources, nationhood, human conquest and slavery. Some problems like global warming, wealth distribution inequality and global pollution grew to become almost unsolvable.  Phase two – overall human freedom grew, but much was offset.

Now, as the Internet of Things grows in prominence, will its freedom to operate, come at the expense of human freedom per se (Phase three)?

If we continue to obsess about Phase two shortcomings, then by the time we collectively think about Phase three, Phase four will be upon us…

The evolution of political representation:

  • Working people gain their own representation.
  • Women gain their own representation.
  • Children gain their own representation.
  • Gay people gain their own representation.
  • Trans-gender people gain their own representation.
  • Cyborg people gain their own representation.
  • AI systems gain their own representation.

Design

_MG_2207

Design-carefully crafting a set of stepping stones, to create the road to perfection.

Visualisation-the art of standing in dark cellars and seeing rainbows. Interpretation– letting a simple message rise up out of the starting blocks, run a controlled race and on the home straight, smile for a photo finish. Execution-making forward travel along the arc of the rainbow, but taking time out to write postcards from the edge.

Can you design a human relationship?

Perhaps the best you can do is identify some key values that you both share, appreciate the overlap in those values and share a dream.

Can you design a professional working relationship?

Companies set the ground rules, but can’t design in human ingenuity. Companies might set out to design end products and services. But it’s the values, courage and persistence that take the team from start to roll-out.

Online Education advances

single-robot-sat-down-thinking-header_MG_0599

http://uk.businessinsider.com/google-education-expert-machine-learning-2016-8

I recently read an interesting article (see weblink above) by Jonathan Rochelle. Mr Rochelle is the head of the product management team for Google’s education outreach arm, called Google for Education.

Expert machine programming/AI development helps machines learn and machines (increasingly) help students learn. The question is, will conventional teaching cope?

Without doubt, machine learning is high growth off a low base. With a good deal more investment-return uncertainty, machine-assisted student learning is high growth off a low installation base.

Meanwhile, in the land of traditional education methods, the effectiveness of human teachers in fostering high learning growth from students is experiencing far more sluggish improvement. Some of the reasons arguably include the following (in no particular order):

(1) a lack of agreement inside schools on what’s causing the attainment gap problem. Is it a shortage of the best teachers, or the best teaching practices? Is it the poor parent-school partnership or the lack of school boundaries?

(2) resistance to learning from the students. Students and their parents may have a different view from the school about the best teaching style, or the best learning style for the student. Are teachers, who are passionate about their subject, making it relevant enough to the students’ future lives?

(3) the need to build suitable physical facilities to support student learning. Will far more conventional classrooms need to become computer suites, perhaps with virtual reality apparatus?

(4) budget funding constraints

(5) confusion on the institutions’ own goals (too many targets?).

As online education software increasingly provides a more complete teaching solution in the classroom, what can human educators do? Start planning now for the changeover (move to a variable cost workforce and shorter shelf-life classroom facilities), immerse students in the online systems world (so student graduates can partner with it later) and offer school curriculum choices in subjects that will be slowest to become obsolete i.e. subjects that remain valued by future employers who hire student graduates.

Lastly, how long before the Chinese equivalent of Google matches Google’s audacious plans for transforming global education?

The coming decade…

single-robot-sat-down-thinking-header

Education and Work

Students stay at school longer, then graduate to do what? Make better and more informed decisions. Decisions on the things that AI can’t or won’t yet do.

People concede that they need the extra education to understand analysis. Year 14 Maths is compulsory.

Jobs open up reconciling and debugging AI systems, until such time as they merge. Counselling, drug rehab and mental health jobs prosper.

Politics and governance

Politics between 2020 and 2030 becomes largely concerned with social wealth distribution. Taxation and investment decisions are reformed.

Political referendums become more prevalent as the technology to host them becomes more cost-effective, but then disappear as governance identifies that issues can’t be resolved piecemeal, but that wholesale ecosystem policy reform is needed.

Hedge fund AI resources are harnessed to government policy making? How? Indirectly via consulting firms and higher education computer resources. Governments commission most complex policy problems to be solved using AI. AI resources are rented as needed to deliver the output.

The serious and super-complex problems become resolved by groups of AI’s acting together. Monitoring systems progressively merge.

International trade

Trade becomes less physical movement and more trade credits for the IP on items exported and imported between countries.

AI performs increasingly more of the services that currently occur between people.

Most financial currencies consolidate to align with the half a dozen large trading blocs that emerge.

Entertainment

Celebration of human endeavour is highlighted, tapping the human need to cheer the underdog. e.g. music contests, the Olympics and sports leagues, even as AI controls more of our functioning World.

Healthcare

Basic healthcare receives priority attention. People are actively counselling about healthy lifestyle choices.

Junk food and confectionery companies sponsor medical research into fat cell inhibiting medications and finally succeed, making their profits soar.

Mental health counselling aided by AI diagnostics achieves a quiet revolution, creating a happier but more aware society.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Left and the Right

21st Century Champagne socialists favour a world in which everyone has equal access to the resources they require in order to flourish, rather than one of equal distribution.

Meanwhile, 21st Century conservatives (with a small c) favour a world in which everyone has equal opportunity to build the resources they require.

What’s the difference? Incentive. Building resources in an efficient way requires it. Having resources to share, skips over the incentive problem of creating them in the first place.

What’s the problem with both views? One problem is resource sustainability. In a World that wasn’t over-populated, Adam Smith and Karl Marx could conveniently ignore the environmental impacts of their theories.

Then there’s the policy confusion problem (too many targets). Having equal access to all of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs is arguably a redundant problem, if too many people are grasping just for the first need (basic food and shelter) and the nation’s too poor at governance to provide them all with that first need, let alone the others (high quality healthcare, crime prevention, free access to museums, foreign aid etc). Does that mean 21st Century socialists should concentrate on the basics first, or continue concentrating on securing equal access at all Maslow levels? Meanwhile, building resources requires skill, energy and materials. If the government policies aren’t smart or cohesive enough to encourage people build just the first of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, that’s a problem also.

What to do? If good government requires the governors to do the greatest good for the greatest number, use the Maslow model as a foundation for your policy priorities and skip the vanity projects!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/apr/16/what-problem-champagne-socialism-francois-hollande

Older guy seeks younger woman…

_MG_8900

‘Tit for tat’ relationships – the sexy, sassy women who meets the fake, chancer guy.

The double whammy – the beautiful young women who gets hit on by successful older guys seeking trophy girlfriends AND by loser older guys who’s lack of maturity means they can only relate to a women half their age.