Education and Work
Students stay at school longer, then graduate to do what? Make better and more informed decisions. Decisions on the things that AI can’t or won’t yet do.
People concede that they need the extra education to understand analysis. Year 14 Maths is compulsory.
Jobs open up reconciling and debugging AI systems, until such time as they merge. Counselling, drug rehab and mental health jobs prosper.
Politics and governance
Politics between 2020 and 2030 becomes largely concerned with social wealth distribution. Taxation and investment decisions are reformed.
Political referendums become more prevalent as the technology to host them becomes more cost-effective, but then disappear as governance identifies that issues can’t be resolved piecemeal, but that wholesale ecosystem policy reform is needed.
Hedge fund AI resources are harnessed to government policy making? How? Indirectly via consulting firms and higher education computer resources. Governments commission most complex policy problems to be solved using AI. AI resources are rented as needed to deliver the output.
The serious and super-complex problems become resolved by groups of AI’s acting together. Monitoring systems progressively merge.
Trade becomes less physical movement and more trade credits for the IP on items exported and imported between countries.
AI performs increasingly more of the services that currently occur between people.
Most financial currencies consolidate to align with the half a dozen large trading blocs that emerge.
Celebration of human endeavour is highlighted, tapping the human need to cheer the underdog. e.g. music contests, the Olympics and sports leagues, even as AI controls more of our functioning World.
Basic healthcare receives priority attention. People are actively counselling about healthy lifestyle choices.
Junk food and confectionery companies sponsor medical research into fat cell inhibiting medications and finally succeed, making their profits soar.
Mental health counselling aided by AI diagnostics achieves a quiet revolution, creating a happier but more aware society.
During the UK general election there was a lot of talk about the pain and unfairness of austerity cuts and the need for welfare-to-work changes to balance the books. Two elephants in the room were worker productivity and housing supply.
Whether you’re a Tory supporter or not, there’s little viable future in getting more UK people into minimum wage jobs to cut the welfare bill, when they cannot meet a rise in the cost of living, their future job is threatened by automation and most of their net wage goes on housing costs. Not to mention higher unemployment elsewhere in Europe encouraging foreign workers to migrate to the UK seeking UK minimum wage jobs.
How about diverting the £100B from Trident to education investment to upskill the current workforce instead?
I recently read an interesting Infographic on the UK labour market, published by the Chartered Institute of Personnel & Development (CIPD) – see web-link below.
It reported 60 people per job applied (in the last 12 months in the UK?) for low skilled or unskilled vacancies, up from 50 last year.
It also reported 20 people per job applied for high skilled (how defined?) vacancies, up from 10 people last year.
In addition, it reported only 40% of job applicants were (considered by employers/recruiters as) suitable for the roles advertised, whether low or high skilled roles.
A few observations:
1. If there is a ratio of 60:1 for low & unskilled applicants to jobs, clearly that’s a serious structural problem in the UK labour market (even ignoring any location mismatches). And it ignores the NEETs – those opting out of employment, education or training. Probably what voters need clarifying is whether that ratio is now so high because:
(a) such jobs are rapidly disappearing (e.g. blue, pink and white collar jobs becoming automated, offshored, or replaced by postgraduate research jobs instead),
(b) poorly-conceived and poorly-designed EU employment law changes are encouraging UK employers not to create more low-skilled jobs,
(c) there are rising numbers of low-skilled immigrants now applying for the low and unskilled jobs that are being bid down to minimum wage, due to the oversupply of such labour.
Or instead, it is some combination of all three things, creating a ‘perfect storm’ of conditions. To the extent that (c) applies, what will the immigrants do if they cannot get work in the UK, where there is free NHS healthcare, free education, benign immigration status checks and a comparatively favourable welfare system?
2. With further expected funding cut-backs in secondary, further and higher education, the above three statistics are likely to worsen further.
3. If only 40% of recent job applicants really are suitable for the roles advertised, how can the UK education system provide better outputs, to raise this to say 80%? Are jobs being created at such a rate in new fields, that the education and training system simply cannot adjust its curriculum fast enough? Is the careers advisory service in schools and other educational institutions still fit for purpose?
And, if only 40% of applicants really are suitable, this implies that a serious number of job applicants either need to retrain, upskill, or change their attitudes and behaviours to improve their suitability. Do they realise this?
The evolution of jobs through history:
- In service, pieceworker or indentured serf,
- Salaried job for life,
- Series of ‘permanent’ roles,
- Portfolio of concurrent contracts for own clients,
- Portfolio of digital money machines,
The new consumer entertainment business model – houses are information deltas that data streams flow into.
Today’s career advice – work for minimum wage, until you can devise and start up a sustainable money machine of your own.
Today’s complex supply chain is tomorrow’s drone journey – drone deliveries of 3D printer raw materials e.g. from the oil fields to the biodegradable/recyclable plates & utensils that you print out for your dining table…
I read an interesting preview on the ‘Recruitment Grapevine’ website, based on a recent London Business School survey of Generation Y work attitudes.
In it, the London Business School says 90% of Generation Y employees do not plan on staying with one employer for more than five years – with 37% planning to stay less than two years.
Richard Hytner, Adjunct Associate Professor of Marketing at London Business School says that “The job market can respond by better casting people to very specific projects, very specific assignments, very specific opportunities – multiple opportunities – in order to keep talent developed, stretched and hungry.”
Does this mean in the skilled labour market that we’re moving increasingly to project jobs that involve people working on multiple projects concurrently and on a stream of projects in sequence?
Will job agencies that operate in the skilled labour market, evolve into brokers between project tender issuance and project tender submissions?
Will Gen Y (generation cynical/generation rent) manage their own careers as a portfolio of income streams (involving client project work that is less than five years long, possibly from multiple concurrent clients), rather than as one ‘permanent role’ salary from a ‘permanent’ employer?
Lastly, will many future white collar management jobs evolve into project management roles instead?
Education opens a door to awareness. Awareness opens a Universe to discovery.
Bank bonuses – less a reward for the past. More an incentive to generate value in the future.
In the time spent bank bonus-bashing, banks silently generate huge value for the UK economy.
Scandals in the banking industry, Parliament, or the Met Police, are like storms lashing the coastline. Learn from the experience. Take effective steps to avoid future damage, but most importantly, appreciate the strength of the underlying landscape.
If we spend time bashing the wealth creators, instead of upskilling, we’ll get the economic wasteland we deserve.
Every person who rips off the system, takes taxpayers money that could have gone into investing in a better future for us all. And especially our kids.
Healthy living is a series of choices. Unhealthy dying is a consequence of not making the right choices.
People complain that immigration puts pressure on public services. And then choose to swamp the NHS system (A&E) instead of visiting their GP for treatment!
Taking drugs combines the worst of the Black Death with the worst of the Slave Trade.
Being proud to be English doesn’t mean celebrating understatement. There’s nothing understated about Newton or Shakespeare, the global prevalence of the English language, or the Westminster system of government.